La population des plus de 80 ans dans le Royaume Uni va passer de 2,5 millions en 2002 à 4,9 millions en 2031. Les projections à long terme indique que ce chiffre progressera pendant encore 20 ans de plus, pour atteindre un pic en 2050 avec 7 millions de personnes de plus de 80 ans
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The population aged 80 and over in the United Kingdom will grow from 2,5 million in 2002 to reach 4,9 millions by 2031. Longer-term population projections suggest a continuing increase for around a further 20 years, peaking in the early 2050s at nearly 7 million.
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This is one of the key results from the most recent population projections for the UK and its constituent countries. The projections, made by the Government Actuary, were bases on the estimated population at the middle of 2002 and were published in December 2003.
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The projections show that :
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The number of older people will increase significantly relative to the number of younger people, with the average (mean) age expected to rise from 39,3 years in 20002 to 43,6 years in 2031.
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The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 7,4 per cent from 11,8 million in 2002 to just below 11 million in 2014 and then to rise slowly until the late 2020s.
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The number of people of working age (currently defined as between ages 16 to 64 for men and 16 to 59 for women) is projected to rise by 3,5 per cent from 36,6 million, in 2002 to 37,8 million in 2010. Allowing for the planned change in women’s state region age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020, the working age population will increase further to 39,4 million by 2021 and then gradually start to fall.
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The working population will also become much older. Although little change is projected in the number of adults under age 30, the 30-44 age group is projected to fall by 11,6 per cent from 13,5 million in 2002 to 11,9 million in 2017 before rising to 12,7 million in the late 2020s. Conversely, the 45-59 age group is projected to increase by 15,2 per cent by 2018 before beginning to fall.
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The number of people over state pension age is projected to increase by 11,9 per cent from 10,9 million in 2002 to 12,2 million in 2011. Given the change in women’s state pension age, the population of pensionable age will then rise only slightly further (to 12,7 million) by 2021. However, a faster increase will then resume, with longer-term projections suggesting that the number over state pension age will peak at over 17 million in about sixty years’ time.
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The UK population is projected to increase gradually from an estimated 59,2 million in 2002 to reach 64,8 million by 2031. This is equivalent to an annual growth rate of 0,3 per cent. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peal around 2050 at over 65 million and than gradually start to fall.
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Due to differences in past en present demographic patterns, and those assumed for the future, projected trends differ for the four countries of the United Kingdom. A small decline in the population of Scotland is projected to continue from 2002, while the populations of Wales and Northern Ireland are projected to peak in around thirty years time and then start to fall. The population of England is still projected to be rising at 2040n but at a low rate of growth.
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