Life expectancy doubled and
healthy senior years increased during the last century. These trends changed participation
in sports and fitness activities and are likely to change them more in the future.
Many professional athletes continue their careers after the
traditional retirement age of 40, and many more people enjoy amateur sports
and fitness activities in mid-life and senior years. Why?
• People know that sports and fitness are ways to build
the physical activity needed for good health into our increasingly sedentary
lives.
• Greater opportunities exist to participate in senior
sports leagues (Men’s Senior Baseball League/Men’s Adult Baseball League and
The International Tennis Association Seniors Circuit), multi-sport festivals
(World Senior Games and US National Senior Games), and events like marathons,
walks and bicycle rides open to people of all ages (the Marine Corps Marathon
in Washington, DC, and The Seagull Century, a 100-mile bicycle ride on Maryland’s
Eastern Shore).
• Improved technology keeps people in the game longer
by making play more enjoyable (tennis rackets with bigger sweet spots) and preventing
injuries (bicycle helmets and hip and knee pads)
The report Global Aging and Sports: The Impact of Aging of the
World’s Population on the World of Sports, examines how increasingly healthy
aging of the world’s population in most countries is affecting the world of
sports. It is the second of a series of reports by The Consilience Group, LLC,
on the future of fitness and sports commissioned by SBRnet, a Princeton, New
Jersey, sports market research firm. SBRnet subscribers receive these reports
at no additional charge. The public can purchase them by clicking on "Custom
Reports for Non-SBRnet Subscribers" at http://www.sbrnet.com. The first
report, Physical Activity Trends: Business and Policy Implications, was published
in 2005, and SBRnet has commissioned an update of it to be published in late
2007.
The report found that total U.S. participation and participation
by Americans over 45 grew in 21 sports and fitness activities since the early
1990s: basketball, bowling, mountain and rock climbing, walking, exercise with
equipment, running and jogging, working out at a club, tackle football, golf,
hiking, hunting with firearms, ice hockey, in-line skating, kayaking/rafting,
martial arts, skateboarding, snorkeling, snowboarding, soccer, target shooting
with firearms and waterskiing.
Participation by Americans over 45 grew in another 13 activities
while participation by Americans as a whole declined: badminton, baseball, bicycle
riding, canoeing, touch football, ice/figure skating, racquetball, scuba diving,
alpine skiing, softball, swimming, table tennis and tennis.
Exercise walking remained the most popular activity for Americans
over 45.
Is this trend a "pot of gold" for businesses that
depend on people’s interest and participation in fitness and sports? "Not
necessarily," says The Consilience Group Chairman Ken Harris. Much will
depend on people’s continued motivation to participate and the future state
of the economy. Four main factors determine motivation: health (believing and
acting on the advice of health authorities to exercise), competition (measure
one’s efforts against those of others), fun (desire to enjoy oneself) and public
approval (beliefs about the extent to which sports participation is desirable
and/or appropriate for older people). The economy greatly affects people’s ability
to participate because it determines whether adequate health care exists for
an increasingly older population and whether people have sufficient discretionary
income and leisure time. Three conditions, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias,
diabetes and obesity, and osteoporosis, threaten the ability of older people
to participate in sports and fitness — not only those directly afflicted but
also their caregivers.
Global Aging and Sports explores four scenarios for the future
of older people’s sports and fitness in the first half of the 21st century.
In Playing Field, Court and Health Club, resolution of long-term economic problems
of the United States leads to unprecedented prosperity. A booming free-market
economy creates an intense desire for competition, which carries over from the
rough-and-tumble business world into the sports world. Competing in ultra-marathons
and double century bicycle rides becomes popular. Senior and super senior sports
participants drive an intensely competitive market for high-quality sporting
goods. People of all ages walk and run for exercise in every conceivable virtual
environment on computerized, web-enabled treadmills, which are part of increasingly
sophisticated home health clubs. In professional sports, team owners flush with
cash form senior Major League Baseball, the senior NBA, and the senior NHL,
giving Baby Boomers the opportunity to continue watching the sports heroes of
their youth.
In Fresh Air and Sunshine, an activist federal government partly
resolves America’s long-term economic problems with tougher health, safety,
environmental protection and energy conservation regulations. Increased environmental
and health consciousness build the necessary political support for rejuvenation
of old and creation of new public parks and recreational trails where people
engage in a variety of outdoor sports and fitness activities. Sports and fitness
activities that allow people of all ages to enjoy the cleaner environment —
walking, hiking, climbing, bicycle riding, canoeing, kayaking and cross-country
skiing — are among those that become popular. Team sports continue to remain
popular but become less organized. Letting children play by their own rules
instead of in adult micromanaged leagues becomes OK again, and adults begin
to play pickup baseball, softball and touch football games and to copy children’s
games like kickball and dodgeball. Times are not so good for professional sports
as Baby Boomers enjoy outdoor activities as much as possible and become disillusioned
with sensational media reports of professional athletes’ bad behavior. Senior
professional golf and tennis, however, continue to have enough fans for economic
viability.
Sports Bar and Home Theater is the best of times for professional
and top amateur sports. The long-term economic problems of the United States
are solved through legislation, and the resulting high prosperity allows people
to have a life of passive luxury leisure. People enjoy viewing sports events
in the luxury of their home media rooms and nicely appointed sports bars and
participate in them only to the extent that they can "make the team"
in school. Because medicine conquers most diseases and universal access to health
care becomes available, health concerns no longer motivate people to be fit.
Sports competitions for people over 45 become social occasions in the form of
corporate golf and hunting outings. Golf’s Champion’s Tour becomes the only
surviving senior professional sports league, mainly because of its traditional
appeal. Other senior professional leagues fail because market research shows
that the public prefers to watch young, well-trained athletes on television
and the Internet.
In Mall Walking, Minor League Baseball and Friday Night Lights,
the U.S. economy becomes weak as a result of failure to resolve long-term economic
problems. Chronic federal budget deficits make providing universal access to
health care and adequate funding for research on chronic diseases impossible.
Participation in sports and fitness activities grows more slowly than the population
of older people. People lack leisure time for sports and fitness because of
the need to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. Walking, bicycling and swimming
remain popular especially during periods of unemployment because of their low
cost. Amateur sports competition other than that among school and college teams
sharply declines. Not only is golf’s Champions Tour the only senior professional
sports league to survive but poor economic conditions cause the demise of women’s
leagues.
The Consilience Group, a futurist consulting firm, works with
companies, organizations and government entities to find opportunities and meet
the challenges of the 21st century. Its Chairman, Kenneth Harris, is a member
of the Association of Professional Futurists and a Professional Member of the
World Future Society.
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