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Date: Monday, June 05, 2006
Source: China Post
Taiwan is expected to follow Japan shortly to see zero population growth.
Japan’s population showed a negative growth for the first time in history last year.
"We are afraid our population will stop growing in 10 to 15 years," a Council of Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) specialist said yesterday.
Quoting Ministry of the Interior statistics, the CEPD official said, Taiwan’s birth rate dropped to an all-time 0.91 percent low last year.
Only 65,400 babies were born in Taiwan in the first four months of this year.
Given these statistics, Taiwan will have a zero population growth somewhere between 2016 and 2021. "Then," the CEPD expert said, "the population is going to shrink."
At its height, Japan’s population is expected to total 128 million in 2006. It will go down to 100 million in 2050 and further down to 64 million by the end of this century.
Whether Taiwan’s population will drop that fast is not predicted, however.
The CEPD is making a new population study…
According to the previous study, the zero population growth was expected in 2022.
That rate has come down to 0.91 percent, the CEPD official said. "So the zero growth will be seen in 2016 at the earliest," he added.
The arrival of the zero growth in population is being moved up by six years.
He attributed the drop in the birth rate to the reluctance of women to have babies. Many families do not want babies, because bringing them up — until their completion of college education — costs between NT$4.5 million and NT$6,4 million per head.
Those parents who already have one child don’t want any more. A third child is a rarity or an exception.
Statistics show one out of every five married women has undergone abortion. All this accelerates the aging of the population.
At present, the elderly — those 65 years old or older — account for nearly 10 percent of the entire population.
In 20 years — or by 2026 — Tai wan will catch up with Japan in the elderly-to-population ratio In Japan, one out of every five people was an elderly citizen last year.
"We will have that 20 percent ratio in two decades," the CEPD specialist predicted.
Taiwan became an aging society in 1993 with its elderly population representing 7 percent of the entire populace. There were altogether 1.7 million elderly citizens in that year.
The number climbed up to 2.2 million last year, 9.8 percent of the population.
"It’s increasing faster than expected," said another CEPD expert. She forecast the aged to account for 14 percent of the population by 2014 and catch up with Japan 12 years later.
The graying of the population does not only entail large government spending for medical care but will also change the social structure.
Schools have to be reduced in number, and there is going to be a drastic change in the market catering to the old and the very young.
The CEPD hopes to publish its n ew population study in a week’s time.
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